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So theres very little uncertainty about the fact and timing of payout.
Well, perhaps I missed the big point back in 2007. .
At that time as well, as my prior posts table points out, GET offered a more reasonable spread between purchase price and payout value. .However, the posts original thesis (as stated in its title) is now quite wrong, and I no longer recommend the GET and have not for several years.The post has god of war 1 bonus since been the most-commented on the blog (many other comments having been lost when I switched to WordPress, unf.). .By honesty, I mean with a truly conservative and best-estimate view of what returns will look like, and what the ability to meet future needs requires of the plan.The GETs predominant characteristic is that it is an unfunded defined benefit investment scheme, which creates several inherent tensions.For us as investors, it means eschewing magic bullets, and being duly skeptical when we are promised a return without its associated risk. .Today, the premium is a whopping 36! .But the bigger point is about defined benefit plans. .(If you want to know more, the colorful Andrew Tobias has written a book that is actually a quite engaging history and critique of the insurance business, believe it or not.) And for real insurance, that is, casualty and life insurance (not health insurance which.The management of such plans seems to be an activity fraught with roadblocks to true honesty. .Bubble-callers smarter than myself were ranting about real estate. .Increase inflows (get more signups or charge a bigger premium.Readers and the GET itself have provided very important clarifications and perspectives (including some wrong or misleading ones) and its important to read *all* the comments.Another fun benefit arises when you have big money at risk in casualty insurance: youve now created big entities that have a vested monetary benefit in making the world safer and less prone to fires, theft, flood damage, untimely deaths, etc. .Their options then will be to:.
But, probably, if the state is doing its usual stuff and the roads are paved and the ferries are sailing, the GET will get paid.
If the GET program should face a shortfall, any of the following options might start to look appealing: Recharacterize a lot of the UW tuition and state-mandated fees to be not-quite state-mandated fees.
In 2007, when my niece was born and I looked into GET, the S P was flirting with 1600 and attractive valuations were hard to find. .With the GET, there are some key differences. .Keep an artificially low in-state tuition (perhaps making up the below-market rate by capping in-state attendance and jacking up out-of-state tuition).Usually, when one says defined benefit one speaks of pension plans that have numeric formulas for determining or projecting specific dollar payouts; here, the payout is linked to state university tuition rates. .I might point out that assets under management at GET have ballooned.3 B over the past year, at the same time as fear has driven individual investors out of equity markets. .The risk here is how much UW tuition is going to cost when your kid turns. .Look, this isnt saying that anyone is corrupt, and Im certainly not a Norquistian starve-the-beast type. .(Cynics kasyno przy rotundzie would say greater fools, but umbro vs lotto thats not really fair; lots of things are unfunded but entirely legitimate and not foolish.).
Unfunded means that, like Social Security, the system uses pay as you go, at least in part. .
So, if GET were an independent entity, say a bank or insurance company, that said no matter what UW tuition is, in X years, we here at Bear Stearns Lehmann Bros AIG Acme Bank will pay you that amount, in return for Y today, youd.
Update, November 17, 2013.